The objectives of Poland’s climate and energy policy are becoming more ambitious. However, there is still no clear path towards climate neutrality and 2040 targets. In our latest report, we look at the prospects for decarbonisation of the Polish economy.
According to policies already in place, the European Union is aiming for climate neutrality in 2050. More recently it officially started discussing a greenhouse gas reduction target for 2040 from 2024.
In Poland, however, the formulation of climate targets itself is behind schedule. Currently, the Ministry of Climate and Environment is only working on an update of the “National Energy and Climate Plan” until 2030. We know the conservative scenario and only the outlines of the ambitious one.
What is missing is a debate on decarbonisation targets for 2040. Statements by government representatives from early 2024 can hardly be considered as such.
Sectoral challenges
In this report, we provide an overview of Poland’s climate policy, including the targets from the NECP. We also review individual sectors of the economy in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and possible reduction pathways.
Furthermore, we highlight the need to formulate reduction targets and viable decarbonisation policies for all industries. We list the challenges faced by each sector.
Despite the fact that more than half of Poland’s electricity generation comes from coal, the power sector can be considered a leader among sectors in terms of green transition. Decarbonising transport and industry is already subject to discussion. Far behind, however, is agriculture.
The actual implementation of Poland’s climate policy in recent years has referred to specific, local economic conditions rather than to a neutrality target or an available emissions budget.
At the same time, not enough has been done so far to address challenges such as heating homes with fossil fuels or the high energy intensity of industry. In contrast, the development of renewable energy is progressing largely due to the development of prosumer energy.
A key conclusion we draw in the report is that Poland needs to set clear and comprehensive emission reduction targets by 2040. The lack of clear long-term targets, especially in sectors such as agriculture and transport, risks falling behind EU commitments. It also puts into question the competitiveness of the Polish economy.
The entire report may be downloaded here.
The report was produced as part of the project ‘EU 2040 Climate Target. Level of ambition and implications’, carried out by the Ecologic Institute and the Oeko-Institut in cooperation with AMO in the Czech Republic and 300Gospodarka in Poland.